How to Value Bet Jackpot Games

What is Value Betting?

A bet has value when the true probability of an outcome is higher than what the bookmaker's odds imply.

In jackpots, you're not betting against bookmaker odds directly, but value thinking still applies.

Question: Is this team's actual win probability higher than market consensus?

Step 1: Check bookmaker odds (e.g., Arsenal to win = 1.50 odds = 66.7% implied probability)

Step 2: Do your own analysis (form, H2H, injuries)

Step 3: Estimate YOUR probability (e.g., you think Arsenal wins 75% of the time)

Step 4: If your estimate > market consensus, there's value