The Ultimate Guide to Winning the SportPesa Jackpot (2026 Edition)
Jackpot Win Probability Calculator
Mega Jackpot
Your Odds
1 in 129,140,163
Probability
7.74e-7%
Bet Cost
KSH 99
What Is the SportPesa Jackpot?
The SportPesa Jackpot is a football prediction game where you predict the outcomes of 13 (Midweek) or 17 (Mega) football matches. Each match has three possible outcomes: Home Win, Draw, or Away Win. Get all predictions correct and you win the jackpot. Get close and you win a bonus.
The minimum stake is KSh 99. The jackpot prize pool is shared if multiple people win. As of February 2026, the SportPesa Mega Jackpot has produced only 5 winners in history, with the largest payout being KSh 424.6 million won by Bonnie Kamau in August 2025.
How to Play
You can play via SMS, the SportPesa app, or the website. For detailed instructions on each method, read our guide on how and where to buy jackpot tickets in Kenya.
Playing via SMS
Send your predictions to 79079 in the format: MJP#1X22222XXXX11XX12 (for Mega Jackpot). The cost is automatically deducted from your M-Pesa. Learn more in our complete ticket buying guide.
Playing via App
Download the SportPesa app, register, deposit via M-Pesa, and make your picks. Full tutorial available in our apps guide.
Understanding the Odds
The mathematical probability of winning the Mega Jackpot is 1 in 129,140,163. The Midweek Jackpot is 1 in 1,594,323 — still extremely unlikely, but 81 times better than the Mega.
These are tough odds, but they improve significantly with research and strategic double chance picks. Use the calculator above to see exactly how double chance selections affect your probability. Learn more about the exact mathematics in our article on the odds of winning the SportPesa jackpot.
Strategies That Work
1. Predicting Draws
Draws happen in 22-26% of all matches across major leagues. Most bettors under-pick draws, which means correctly predicting them gives you a contrarian edge. Learn to identify draw candidates using our complete guide to predicting draws.
Key draw indicators:
- Teams with similar Expected Goals (xG) ratings
- Mid-table clashes with low motivation
- Matches with tight head-to-head records
Use our free draw counter tool to check your slip distribution before submitting.
2. Predicting Home Wins
Home teams win 44-46% of matches historically, though this advantage has been declining. The key is understanding which leagues have the strongest home advantage (La Liga and Ligue 1 at 48-50%) and which factors truly matter.
Our home win prediction guide shows you:
- How crowd size affects performance
- Which leagues have the strongest home advantage
- When to back the home favorite vs. when to avoid
3. Predicting Away Wins
Away wins carry the highest odds and the most contrarian value. Most bettors are biased toward home teams, creating opportunities. Our away win prediction guide reveals:
- Teams with strong away records
- Tactical setups that favor away teams
- When the away team is actually the favorite
4. Improving Your Overall Chances
For a comprehensive strategy overview covering double chance usage, bankroll management, and research frameworks, read our guide on how to increase your chances of winning.
Jackpot Bonus Tiers
You do not need to get all games right to win something. SportPesa pays bonuses for getting close:
Mega Jackpot (17 games):
- 17/17 correct: Full jackpot
- 16/17 correct: Bonus prize
- 15/17 correct: Bonus prize
- 14/17 correct: Bonus prize
- 13/17 correct: Bonus prize
- 12/17 correct: Bonus prize
Midweek Jackpot (13 games):
- 13/13 correct: Full jackpot
- 12/13 correct: Bonus prize
- 11/13 correct: Bonus prize
- 10/13 correct: Bonus prize
Calculate your potential winnings at different accuracy levels using our midweek and mega bonus calculator.
Past Winners: What Their Slips Looked Like
Real people have won life-changing amounts. The most recent winner, Bonnie Kamau, won a record KSh 424.6 million in August 2025 after betting with SportPesa for 10 years.
Learn about their stories and what their winning slips looked like in our articles on:
- SportPesa jackpot winners and their picks
- Biggest jackpot wins in Kenya
- Complete history of jackpot winners in Kenya
Our analysis of winning slips shows:
- Winners typically pick 2-5 draws in a 17-game slip
- They are not afraid to back away wins when data supports it
- They avoid picking all favorites
What to Do If You Win
Winning is just the beginning. Tax, investment, and financial planning are critical. Under Kenya's Finance Act 2025, you pay a 5% withholding tax on all withdrawals from your betting wallet (down from the previous 20% on net winnings).
For a KSh 424 million jackpot win, the tax would be approximately KSh 21.2 million rather than the KSh 85 million it would have been under the old regime.
Read our complete money management guide for winners before you spend a single shilling. It covers:
- Tax obligations and how they're calculated
- Investment allocation strategies
- Passive income generation
- Common mistakes jackpot winners make
Finding the Right Platform
SportPesa is not the only option. Kenya has multiple licensed jackpot platforms, each with different structures, prize pools, and bonus tiers:
- Betika — Grand Jackpot (17 games, KSh 49-99), Midweek (15 games, KSh 15), Must Be Won (guaranteed winner every 8 weeks)
- Odibets — Laki Tatu Daily Jackpot (10 games, KSh 15)
- Shabiki — Jackpot Mbao (17 games, KSh 20)
- BetLion — Goliath (20 games, KSh 100, KSh 350M prize)
Compare all licensed Kenyan jackpot platforms in our guides:
- Reputable online jackpot sites in Kenya
- Honest reviews of jackpot betting sites
- Best apps for checking jackpot results
Free Tools to Help You Research
We've built free interactive tools to help you research smarter:
- Draw Counter — Check your draw distribution before submitting
- Odds Calculator — See your exact probability with different game counts and double chance
- Bonus Calculator — Calculate bonus tier payouts
- Money Planner — Plan tax, investment, and passive income if you win
- Fake Winner Card — Generate shareable winner cards for fun
Understanding Prediction Websites
Many websites claim to offer "sure jackpot predictions" or "fixed matches." Most are scams. Learn how to evaluate prediction sites safely in our guide on SportPesa jackpot prediction websites.
Red flags to avoid:
- Claims of 100% accuracy or guaranteed wins
- Demands for payments above KSh 3,000 for single tips
- Photoshopped winning screenshots
- No transparent track record
The Bottom Line
The jackpot is extremely difficult to win. No system guarantees it. Even the best AI prediction models achieve only 50-56% accuracy per match, which translates to roughly 1 in 300,000 odds of getting all 17 correct.
But smart research, disciplined analysis, and the right tools can improve your hit rate on individual games. This improves bonus tier results and occasionally puts you in position for the big prize.
Play responsibly. Only bet what you can afford to lose. And enjoy the process.
Official Resources: